There is no universal system that works efficiently all the time or in every situation. Fortunately, there are a plethora of different strategies, which can be applied to making football wagering decisions. Football is an unpredictable game and will need you to stay committed to learning to implement the betting strategies to maximize winning opportunities.
Basic value betting
Trying to predict accurately is not sufficient, there is a need to shop around for bookmakers offers. There may odds that can offer you sufficient extra value opportunity. Check on UFA, an online betting site that offers bettors good odds & lines as well as great rewards & bonuses.
An illustration to understand the value concept…….
Football A and B are two teams playing a match this weekend. Until now, the home team A has lost only one game. The underdog’s team B has won only two games and is a struggler. Unfortunately, their two key players got injured. It is clear that the overall quality of team A is better than team B, so the home team will win the game comfortably. You plan to bet Moneyline on Team A. The bookmaker offers Team A odds to win -10,000 and Team B is at +10,000. You will need to consider the value, so ask yourself –
- Would you risk $10,000 for winning $100?
- Are you eager to risk $100 for winning $10,000?
For the first question, your answer will be a big NO but in the second question there are chances of Team B winning, so this becomes the good value wager. However, here extreme figures were used to make the point clear, no bookmaker will offer these odds on a football game. Learn how to calculate implied probability and compare it with your estimated probability to choose a good value wager.
Situational handicapping
Besides team quality, you will need to consider the situational factors that can affect the game outcomes.
- Playing conditions like weather, surface, and stadium.
- Streaks reveal the confidence of the team, which can get underestimated by the opponent.
- Times zones can impact the underdog’s performance.
- Standings or playoff hopes
- Injuries of especially missing key players
- A busy schedule means less rest
Contrarian strategy
It even means betting against the crowd. You wager on the opposite of what the public are wagering on. This contrarian concept is based on a simple theory that the majority of bettors will be wrong because most who wager on football are losers. Therefore, it makes sense in betting against most bettors.
Most of the recreational bettor’s wager on big games and overvalue a single side, so it is time to adjust. Look for spots, when you feel that strong public opinion has twisted the odds & lines, which is sufficient to create value for the other side.
The strategies defined above have their flaws, which constrains their effectiveness. This doesn’t mean these are unworthy using. They can be valuable but use it correctly and at the correct time. It is your responsibility to learn and determine which one works in your case. This can be achieved via an experiment on online betting sites like UFAkicks!
